NAAIM 0 (Neutral (35th %ile)) · Style +2.5 (Offensive growth) · US GDP Δ4W +2.5 (Improving +0.9pp)
Method. Core equities % = round_2.5(60 + 15×4W weighted score), clamp [45,75]. Overlay = equal ±2.5% nudges from NAAIM (3Y %ile ≤20 → Contrarian Long / ≥80 → Contrarian Short), Style (Offensive growth +2.5 / Defensive −2.5; Cyclical value & Mixed = 0), and US GDP nowcast Δ4W (≥+0.2pp Improving / ≤−0.2pp Softening), then cap ±5%. Final = round_2.5(clamp(Core + Overlay, 45, 75)). Hard VIX veto → 45% and ignores Overlay. Regime chip uses Core only.
Vote = 200DMA rules (Liq 40% / Cred 35% / Vol 25%) · 100DMA column is context only
| Leg | Call | Level | vs 200DMA | 21d | vs 100DMA (ctx) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity / USD | bearish | UUP 28.69 | +3.63% | +2.68% | +2.10% |
| Credit | bearish | HYG 77.89 | -0.44% | -2.01% | -1.08% |
| Volatility | neutral | VIX 15.7 | * | +1.42% | — |
Weighted leg_score = 0.40·liq + 0.35·cred + 0.25·vol → -0.75 (raw on ≥+0.40 / off ≤−0.40; hard VIX veto → risk_off)
UUP/HYG vs 100DMA is display context only — does not vote. LQD/MOVE/10Y remain context.
* Volatility has no 200DMA. VIX level subscore: <15 → +1 (bullish), 15–20 → 0 (neutral), ≥20 → −1 (bearish). Combined with the 21d ROC subscore (≤−10% → +1, ≥+15% → −1) to form the Call.
FRED 2s10s + MOVE · as-of 2026-09-23 (yields) / 2026-09-24 (MOVE) · (context only)
| Series | Level | 3Y %ile | 1M | 3M | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s (10Y − 2Y) | 26 bps | 45 | -20 bps | -4 bps | Flattening |
| MOVE (bond vol) | 104.6 | 72 | +32.7 | +37.5 | Rising |
Read (2s10s): level Inverted if <0; else Steepening/Flattening from 1M Δ (±15 bps); else Normal — 3M is display only for 2s10s. MOVE Read: primarily 1M (±10 pts); 3M can trigger if |3M| ≥ 10 and 1M confirms direction (1M ≥ 0 for Rising / ≤ 0 for Falling); else Stable. Context only — not a voting leg. Sources: FRED DGS2/DGS10 · Yahoo ^MOVE. 3Y %ile = level percentile over 3Y; 2s10s Δ in bps, MOVE in index points.
Windows: 5d (1W) / 21d (1M) / 63d (3M) · as-of 2026-09-24
| Pair | 1W | 1M | 3M | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY vs UUP (DXY) | -0.16 | -0.35 | -0.30 | Risk-off |
| SPY vs TLT (long Treasuries) | +0.88 | +0.62 | +0.42 | Risk-off |
| SPY vs crude oil (WTI) | -0.51 | -0.50 | -0.51 | Risk-off |
| Bitcoin vs UUP (DXY) | -0.26 | -0.29 | -0.35 | — |
| Gold vs UUP (DXY) | -0.89 | -0.55 | -0.50 | — |
| Crude oil vs UUP (DXY) | -0.43 | -0.26 | -0.01 | — |
| Series | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| UUP (DXY) | +1.09% | +2.68% | +0.74% |
| 10Y yield (^TNX) | +21 bps | +52 bps | +77 bps |
| Crude oil (WTI) | -7.66% | +14.25% | +30.84% |
| Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | +10.51% | +7.47% | +41.38% |
| Gold (GC=F) | -2.09% | -8.24% | +6.43% |
Read uses 1M corr (|r| ≥ 0.15; 3M fallback if 1M missing). 1W is display only. SPY pairs keep Risk-on/off Reads; Bitcoin/Gold/Crude vs UUP are numbers-only (Read —). Rolling corr is noisy (esp. 1W); context only — not a regime leg.
Now: 45.1% above 200DMA · coverage 501/503 names · Reads: Broad / Narrow / Mixed (participation & size; context only)
| Measure | 1W | 1M | 3M | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % above 200DMA (Δ pp) | -5.6 | -26.3 | -16.7 | Narrow |
| IWM (small) vs SPY (large) | -2.17% | -6.04% | -10.26% | Narrow |
Changes are percentage points. Read uses level and primarily 1M Δ (conflicts = Mixed); thresholds ≥55% / ≤45%. 45.1% SPX above 200DMA → Read Narrow (level ≥55% or 1M Δ ≥+5 pp = Broad; level ≤45% or 1M Δ ≤−5 pp = Narrow; conflicts = Mixed); RSP/SPY 21d -5.25%, 63d -5.07% · computed from 503 S&P constituents (portfolio OHLCV cache); n_valid=501 n_missing=2
| Measure | Level | vs 50DMA | vs 200DMA | 1M | 3M | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 A/D line (TRADCADS Index) | 102,293 | -1.08% | -0.38% | -1.58% | -0.91% | Divergence |
A/D Read: Uptrend if line > 50DMA and 50DMA > 200DMA; Broken uptrend if line < 50DMA while 50DMA still > 200DMA; Downtrend if line < 50DMA and 50DMA < 200DMA; Divergence if SPX within ~3% of 52-week high while A/D is below its 50DMA (and/or 1M change negative). Context only — not a vote. Source: TRADCADS Index · as-of 2026-09-24.
Overall (1M): Offensive growth · soft lean: Risk-on lean · taxonomy: Offensive growth / Cyclical value / Defensive / Mixed (context only)
| Pair | 1W | 1M | 3M | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUM (momentum) vs VLUE (value) | +3.58% | +5.07% | -4.69% | Momentum |
| IVW (S&P growth) vs IVE (S&P value) | +2.88% | +4.90% | +4.09% | Growth |
| USMV (min-vol / defensive) vs SPY (market) | -1.46% | -3.31% | -0.87% | Offensive |
Overall (1M): Risk-off · GS VIP / Most Short · as-of 2026-09-24 · (context only)
| Basket | 1W | 1M | 3M | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS HF VIP | +1.93% | -0.33% | -6.01% | — |
| GS Most Short Rolling | -1.36% | -6.30% | -7.35% | — |
| VIP vs Most Short | +3.29% | +5.97% | +1.34% | Risk-off |
Context only — not a voting leg. GS HF VIP (GSTHHVIP) vs Most Short Rolling (GSCBMSAL). Pair = VIP return − Most Short return. Reads from GS basket signals (absolute + spread). Overlay for crowding; combine with Positioning / Style / breadth.
NTM EPS · 50/50 Weighted+NTM revision · Growth = NTM/TTM · real GDP nowcasts · as-of 2026-09-30 · (context only)
| Index | NTM EPS | Blended 4W rev | Blended 3M rev | Growth (NTM/TTM) | Growth 4W ago | Δ (pp) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 416.9 | +0.63% | +5.57% | +27.0% | +26.0% | +1.0 | Stable |
| S&P/TSX | 2291.6 | +0.37% | -1.48% | +18.5% | +17.9% | +0.5 | Stable |
| MSCI World | 282.6 | +0.92% | +5.21% | +23.6% | +22.2% | +1.4 | Stable |
| Region | Nowcast | 4W ago | Δ (pp) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4% | 1.5% | +0.9 | Improving |
| China | 4.1% | 3.7% | +0.5 | Improving |
| Euro Area | 0.5% | 0.4% | +0.1 | Stable |
Context only — not a voting leg. Revision Read = mean of available 4W/3M % changes in Bloomberg Weighted Est and Next Year EPS (50/50 when both exist). NTM EPS level = Next Year estimate. Growth = NTM EPS / TTM EPS − 1. Nowcasts = Bloomberg Economics GDP nowcasts (US/China/Euro Area); always use the last non-null datapoint in each country column (may be dated past today). EA = Bloomberg Euro Area GDP nowcast (BENWEAGQ).
Non-commercial / leveraged net · 3Y %ile · as-of 2026-09-24 · (context only)
| Asset | Net | Net 4W ago | 3Y %ile | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities (ES) | -100,461 | -67,994 | 42.7 | Neutral |
| Nasdaq (NQ) | 34,937 | 12,028 | 84.1 | Contrarian Short |
| Small-cap (RTY) | -71,437 | -51,879 | 7.6 | Contrarian Long |
| Rates (10Y) | -821,236 | -838,975 | 40.1 | Neutral |
| USD | 10,593 | 18,682 | 69.4 | Neutral |
| Crude | 135,905 | 123,449 | 26.1 | Neutral |
| Gold | 220,717 | 242,212 | 56.1 | Neutral |
Read from 3Y %ile (80/20): excess long → Contrarian Short, excess short → Contrarian Long; not a vote. Asset-manager nets omitted (noisy scale).
Overall: Neutral · composite %ile 29.3 · as-of 2026-09-24
| Measure | Level | Level 4W ago | 3Y %ile | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAII bulls | 32.7% | 32.9% | 23.2 | Neutral |
| NAAIM exposure | 79.7 | 79.7 | 35.4 | Neutral |
Read from 3Y %ile (80/20): excess long → Contrarian Short, excess short → Contrarian Long; not a vote.
Headline = 4W weighted raw · Legacy persist = legacy 3-week confirm — not the headline
| Date | Raw | 4W score | Weighted | Legacy persist | vol/cred/liq | Equities tgt | Veto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Risk-off | -0.60 | Risk-off | Mixed | -1/-1/0 | 50.0% | — |
| 2026-09-21 | Mixed | -0.30 | Mixed | Mixed | -1/0/1 | 55.0% | — |
| 2026-09-14 | Risk-off | -0.40 | Risk-off | Mixed | -1/0/-1 | 55.0% | — |
| 2026-09-04 | Mixed | +0.00 | Mixed | Mixed | -1/1/1 | 60.0% | — |
| 2026-08-28 | Mixed | +0.00 | Mixed | Mixed | -1/1/1 | 60.0% | — |
| 2026-08-21 | Mixed | -0.10 | Mixed | Mixed | -1/1/1 | 57.5% | — |
| 2026-08-14 | Mixed | -0.30 | Mixed | Risk-off | -1/1/1 | 55.0% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | Mixed | -0.60 | Risk-off | Risk-off | -1/1/1 | 50.0% | — |
22 trading days (2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24) · Risk-on 0 · Mixed 11 · Risk-off 11 · %>200DMA 45.1–71.5% (last 45.1%)
| Date | Regime (raw) | leg_score / legs | %>200DMA (context) | liq / cred / vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Risk-off | ls=-0.75 · 0↑ 2↓ | 45.1% | liq:S cred:S vol:N |
| 2026-09-23 | Risk-off | ls=-0.75 · 0↑ 2↓ | 47.5% | liq:S cred:S vol:N |
| 2026-09-22 | Mixed | ls=-0.15 · 1↑ 1↓ | 49.3% | liq:S cred:N vol:B |
| 2026-09-21 | Mixed | ls=-0.15 · 1↑ 1↓ | 50.1% | liq:S cred:N vol:B |
| 2026-09-18 | Mixed | ls=-0.15 · 1↑ 1↓ | 49.9% | liq:S cred:N vol:B |
| 2026-09-17 | Risk-off | ls=-0.40 · 0↑ 1↓ | 50.7% | liq:S cred:N vol:N |
| 2026-09-16 | Risk-off | ls=-0.65 · 0↑ 2↓ | 50.5% | liq:S cred:N vol:S |
| 2026-09-15 | Risk-off | ls=-0.65 · 0↑ 2↓ | 53.3% | liq:S cred:N vol:S |
| 2026-09-14 | Risk-off | ls=-0.65 · 0↑ 2↓ | 56.7% | liq:S cred:N vol:S |
| 2026-09-11 | Risk-off | ls=-0.40 · 0↑ 1↓ | 56.9% | liq:S cred:N vol:N |
| 2026-09-10 | Risk-off | ls=-0.65 · 0↑ 2↓ | 55.1% | liq:S cred:N vol:S |
| 2026-09-09 | Risk-off | ls=-0.40 · 0↑ 1↓ | 57.3% | liq:S cred:N vol:N |
| 2026-09-08 | Risk-off | ls=-0.40 · 0↑ 1↓ | 61.1% | liq:S cred:N vol:N |
| 2026-09-04 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 64.7% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |
| 2026-09-03 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 66.9% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |
| 2026-09-02 | Risk-off | ls=-0.40 · 0↑ 1↓ | 64.9% | liq:S cred:N vol:N |
| 2026-09-01 | Mixed | ls=-0.05 · 1↑ 1↓ | 63.3% | liq:S cred:B vol:N |
| 2026-08-31 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 66.9% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |
| 2026-08-28 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 69.7% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |
| 2026-08-27 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 70.3% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |
| 2026-08-26 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 71.3% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |
| 2026-08-25 | Mixed | ls=+0.20 · 2↑ 1↓ | 71.5% | liq:S cred:B vol:B |